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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."